US imposes restrictions on AI chip exports. What does this mean for the development of artificial intelligence in Poland?

Due to growing national security and data protection concerns, the United States has introduced restrictions on the export of AI chips. The new regulations are aimed at preventing the illegal use of AI technology by foreign entities that could threaten US interests.

The restrictions, announced by the U.S. Department of Commerce, are aimed at preventing China, which is one of the main customers for high-tech AI chips produced by U.S. companies, but also other competitors, from acquiring cutting-edge chips that could be used to develop military capabilities.

The restrictions are expected to apply primarily to chips used in the most advanced artificial intelligence systems, including chips for training and operating large AI models, such as those used in chatbots, natural language processing algorithms or autonomous vehicles. These products are typically used by companies engaged in research and development of AI technologies, as well as by governments that invest in defense and security projects.

These chips are manufactured by leading U.S. companies such as NVIDIA, Intel and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which still dominate the AI chip market. Under the new rules, these companies will have to apply for special licenses to export their products to restricted countries, including China.

However, this map turned out to be true! And we in Poland should not think about some global AI applications.

Based on the decision of President Biden's administration, Poland is subject to restrictions on the import of the latest NVIDIA chips. The final document is available here:... pic.twitter.com/fD2jsYhXzP

- Piotr Sankowski (@piotrsankowski) January 14, 2025

In addition to China, countries such as Russia and North Korea are among those with the most restrictions (red on the map) on AI chip exports. In contrast, only the closest allies of the US (blue color on the map) can count on the absence of restrictions - including Western European countries (the UK, Ireland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany), South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and Canada.

Poland, unfortunately, was included in the second basket of countries (yellow color on the map) with quantitative restrictions on exports - up to a number of 50,000 GPU chips over the next two years, with the possibility of expanding to 100,000, after meeting certain security requirements. The main concern here is to ensure that there is no risk of re-exporting purchased AI chips to countries in the "red" basket.

How will this affect the development of artificial intelligence in Poland and, in particular, the construction of the AI Factory and the strengthening of supercomputer computing power resources at the Academic Computer Center Cyfronet AG?

As for public funds and resources, we plan to double the computing capacity in Poland - at least double. Which will still put us below 10% of this so-called limit.

The minister additionally sees long-term potential for minimizing these restrictions, in the production of semiconductors in Poland, if only so that it is in our country that these chips are tested and packaged.

Semiconductors are already being produced in Poland today, our challenge now, increasingly important, is to scale this production, while preparing sites and locations in Poland for larger semiconductor factories for investors from other countries.

As Deputy Minister of Digitization Dariusz Standerski revealed in an interview in Signals of the Day, the limits imposed by the U.S. administration, for the next two years, will not halt the development of artificial intelligence in Poland.

An undeniable opportunity for such a semiconductor factory in Poland, was the one planned by Intel in the municipality of Miękinia near Wrocław. Approval for state aid (for the years 2024 - 2026 in the amount of PLN 7.4 billion), has even been obtained from the European Commission, thanks to which the construction of the factory was to begin as early as this year.

Unfortunately, Intel backed out of this investment moments later, and at least until 2026, the plans are on hold. Hopefully, however, the topic will return in this year or two, especially in the context of the above-described U.S. restrictions on the export of AI chips, in effect for the next two years.